China 2019 analysis and forecast on waste paper consumption

Due to the rapid decrease of imported waste paper, waste pulp (roll) will become an important raw material for paper making in the next few years. The decline in waste paper consumption in China will continue to deep.

Waste paper consumption 2015-2019

As can be seen from the figure, the consumption of waste paper from 2015 to 2019 showed a trend of keeping stable and then decline. From 2015 to 2017, the consumption of waste paper was basically stable. During this period, the domestic demand for finished paper was relatively stable, and the macro-economic fluctuation was limited. Therefore, the domestic consumption of waste paper was well realized. Waste paper consumption continued to decline in 2018-2019, simply because the trade disputes unilaterally initiated by the United States, which put pressure on the export market confidence of China and then crack the domestic consumer market confidence, both of which are closely related to the demand for paper packaging.

The consumption of waste paper in 2019 was 59.2 million tons, down 11.34 percent year-on-year, the lowest point in nearly five years.Domestic waste paper consumption in 2019 will not only bear the pressure of declining output of finished paper, but also the impact from competing products, including imported waste pulp, imported semi-finished paper and finished paper.

2020 Waste paper consumption forecast

According to SCI99.COM, the import volume of waste paper is about 5.6 million tons in 2020, the import volume of waste pulp board (roll) is 1 million tons, and the output of downstream finished paper is about 54.89 million tons. Based on the rough calculation of finished paper production *1.15- waste pulp import /0.8- waste paper import, the consumption of waste paper in China will be 56.27 million tons in 2020, down by 6.37% year-on-year, estimated by SCI99.COM.Under the background of stable and substantial reduction of imported waste paper, the consumption of waste paper is expected to decrease, the proportion of imported waste pulp in the raw materials of finished paper production will increase.

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